Global markets face crosscurrents amid trade shifts, leadership changes, and energy volatility

Today’s market sentiment reflects a high-stakes mix of geopolitical trade maneuvering, leadership transition at one of the world’s most influential conglomerates, and turbulence in commodities. US equity futures are trading lower as global investors digest mounting macroeconomic and policy uncertainties. Oil has extended its slide amid fresh OPEC+ supply increases, while the US dollar faces broad pressure. At the center of attention: President Trump’s evolving tariff stance, Warren Buffett’s succession, and a growing divergence in global growth expectations.

Trump trade policy: volatility, uncertainty, and hints of concessions

President Donald Trump indicated that trade deals with several countries could be finalized “as soon as this week” but declined to name any specific nations. Negotiations are ongoing with multiple Asian and European countries, including India, Japan, and South Korea.

While emphasizing that deal-making remains entirely under his control, Trump also confirmed he has no immediate plans to speak with Chinese President Xi Jinping. Nevertheless, behind-the-scenes talks are ongoing between US and Chinese officials.

Importantly, Trump signaled for the first time a willingness to lower tariffs on Chinese imports, acknowledging that current levies — which reach as high as 145% — have essentially frozen business between the two countries. China has responded with tariffs of up to 125% on US goods.

Markets are cautiously optimistic, but questions remain about how substantive near-term deals may be given the usual long timelines for comprehensive trade agreements.

Markets react: Dollar weakens, futures retreat

The US dollar continued its decline for a second consecutive day amid speculation of a softer stance on tariffs and a potential shift in interest rate expectations. The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index fell 0.3%.

US equity futures also turned lower:

• S&P 500 futures fell 0.7%
• Nasdaq 100 futures dropped 0.7%
• Euro Stoxx 50 futures eased by 0.1%

Risk assets, particularly in Asia, showed more resilience:

• MSCI Asia Pacific Index rose 0.6%
• The Taiwan dollar posted its strongest gain in over three decades, up nearly 5% intraday.

Investors continue to recalibrate expectations around Fed rate cuts, global growth, and inflation amid the broader “Sell America” narrative gripping currency and equity markets.

Oil slumps on OPEC+ supply surge

Crude prices plunged as OPEC+ announced another major output hike — over 400,000 barrels per day — starting in June. Brent crude dropped as much as 4.6%, and WTI fell to around $56 per barrel.

The move, aimed in part at disciplining overproducing members, signals a dramatic shift away from supply restraint and toward regaining market share — even at the cost of lower prices.

This shift comes amid weakened demand tied to trade war fallout and broader macroeconomic fragility, putting pressure on energy markets and inflation expectations.

• Brent (July): $59.53 (-2.9%)
• WTI (June): $56.46 (-3.1%)
• Spot gold: $3,260.50/oz (+0.6%)

Buffett’s departure ushers in new chapter at Berkshire Hathaway

Warren Buffett announced he is stepping down as CEO of Berkshire Hathaway, officially passing the reins to Greg Abel, the Canadian-born energy executive who’s long been his expected successor.

Abel inherits a $1.2 trillion empire, including iconic holdings like Apple and American Express, and a staggering $350 billion cash pile. Questions now swirl around whether he’ll maintain Buffett’s trademark capital allocation discipline or usher in a new era.

Key investor concerns include:

• Whether the company will begin paying dividends
• How Abel will manage the corporate culture and risk
• Whether Berkshire’s conglomerate structure will endure without Buffett

Abel has pledged continuity but lacked Buffett’s usual anecdotal flair when discussing strategy — a detail closely watched by Berkshire’s loyal base.

 What’s ahead: Key macro events

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent is scheduled to testify in Congress this week on fiscal and economic policy.

FOMC and Bank of England decisions are due in the coming days, with market participants looking for clues on interest rate paths.

Shell Plc is reportedly evaluating a possible bid for BP Plc, though timing may depend on further weakness in oil prices.

Markets are entering the week on uncertain footing. While signs of progress in trade talks offer a reprieve, the lack of concrete deals, deepening oil market volatility, and the departure of a legendary investor introduce fresh layers of unpredictability. Risk management and patience remain critical as investors navigate a fragile global environment shaped by politics as much as fundamentals.

Prepared by Nour Hammoury, Chief Market Analyst at SquaredFinancial
Nour is an investor, independent market strategist, and financial advisor. He holds a BA in Finance and Banking Science from Al-Ahliyya Amman University and a CFTe in Economics from the International Federation of Technical Analysts. He has more than 15 years of experience in forex, stocks, and global economic developments, as well as central bank policies and intermarket analysis. He appears regularly on major international TV networks, such as BBC, Al-Jazeera, Al Hurra, CNBC, and Bloomberg, holding open discussions and sharing insights and readings of the markets and trends.

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