Eyes on US ADP Non-Farm and Powell today

Investors are eagerly awaiting the release of important labor data this week, starting with the ADP Employment Change report for November, due out on Wednesday. This report gives insights into job growth in the U.S. private sector, and economists surveyed by Dow Jones predict an increase of 163,000 jobs compared to the previous month.

Additionally, the JOLTS job openings report, set for release on Tuesday, showed 7.74 million job openings in October, exceeding Dow Jones’s expectation of 7.5 million and marking an increase from September.

The spotlight is particularly on the November jobs report, scheduled for Friday, as it represents the key economic update of the week. Dow Jones economists forecast that the U.S. economy added 214,000 jobs last month, a significant rise from the mere 12,000 jobs added in October. They also anticipate that the unemployment rate will increase to 4.2%, up from 4.1% in the previous month.

This jobs report is critical as it will serve as the final assessment of the labor market ahead of the Federal Reserve’s meeting on December 17-18, where officials will decide on interest rate adjustments. Furthermore, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell will be speaking in New York on Wednesday during a moderated discussion, which investors will closely watch for hints about future interest rate policies

Euro awaits confidence vote for French government

On Wednesday, French lawmakers will cast their votes on a no-confidence motion targeting the fragile minority government of Prime Minister Michael Barnier, which is anticipated to succeed.

At present, the EURUSD exchange rate is experiencing fluctuations, currently down 0.1% at 1.0503. Overnight volatility is at 11.33%, with a breakeven level of about 60 pips.

Marine Le Pen, leader of the far-right National Rally party, has declared her party’s support for the no-confidence motion put forward by a left-wing coalition. This motion is likely to pass if it is supported by both factions.

Furthermore, Olli Rehn, a member of the European Central Bank (ECB) Governing Council, indicated that the ECB intends to continue its policy easing in the upcoming months. Money markets currently estimate a 40% chance that the central bank will reduce its policy rates by 75 basis points by January.

AUDUSD near 0.6400 

The Australian dollar is lagging behind all G-10 currencies following disappointing third-quarter GDP results and weak China PMI figures, which have led traders to revise their expectations for an RBA rate cut to April instead of May. The AUDUSD is down 0.6%, trading at 0.6445 after reaching an intraday low of 0.6408. Weekly support has emerged from the October 2022 low, helping to hold up the plunge low from August 5 at 0.6350. However, any current rebound might be capped around 0.6603, the high from November 11. 

Intraday resistance is noted at 0.6550, the high from November 25, while weekly resistance is at 0.6603, also from November 11. For intraday support, watch 0.6408, the session low, and for weekly support, keep an eye on 0.6350, from August 5.

Crude oil pushing higher

Oil is on the rise once more, having marked its largest gain in over two weeks as OPEC+ moves closer to finalizing a decision to delay the restoration of paused supply, while the US has tightened sanctions on Iranian crude. Brent crude prices lingered around $74 per barrel after a 2.5% increase on Tuesday, with West Texas Intermediate also exceeding $70. Delegates indicate that the group of oil producers is nearing an agreement to extend the plan to revive production by an additional three months. In addition, the US has imposed sanctions on 35 entities and vessels deemed pivotal in the transport of Iranian oil.

Gold remains steady

Gold steadied around $2,640 an ounce as traders assessed political turmoil in South Korea and France, boosting demand for safe-haven assets. South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol briefly declared martial law, while French President Emmanuel Macron urged lawmakers to reject a vote that could topple his government. Although gold has fallen over 5% from a late October record high, it remains about 28% higher this year due to US monetary easing and central bank purchases. JPMorgan Chase & Co. continues to maintain a bullish outlook, forecasting gold will average $2,950 an ounce in the fourth quarter of 2025.

Prepared by Nour Hammoury, Chief Market Analyst at SquaredFinancial
Nour is an investor, independent market strategist, and financial advisor. He holds a BA in Finance and Banking Science from Al-Ahliyya Amman University and a CFTe in Economics from the International Federation of Technical Analysts. He has more than 15 years of experience in forex, stocks, and global economic developments, as well as central bank policies and intermarket analysis. He appears regularly on major international TV networks, such as BBC, Al-Jazeera, Al Hurra, CNBC, and Bloomberg, holding open discussions and sharing insights and readings of the markets and trends.

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