Bitcoin over 100K

Bitcoin has finally surpassed the $100,000 mark. Analyzing past trading trends and the performance of altcoins indicates that this rally still has room to grow. The recent appointment of a crypto-friendly SEC chair has helped propel Bitcoin above this significant milestone, and anticipated policy changes that supporters have long sought are likely to contribute to continued momentum. Additionally, Ether has been on a steady upward trend, attracting long-term investors with returns resembling dividend yields.

It has taken Bitcoin four years to reach this doubling in value, a stark contrast to the previous doubling that occurred in just 52 days. However, while there may still be gains ahead, they are expected to come at a slower rate as valuations climb. Since 2020, Bitcoin’s five major surges from trough to peak have averaged gains of 180%, whereas the current rally has achieved 110% from this year’s lowest point. Ether’s historical rallies, which typically see gains of around 122%, also lend support to the crypto market, with Ether itself rising about 80% from its low earlier this year.

French markets steady amid government collapse 

French markets remained stable, and the euro gained strength as investors reacted calmly to the fall of Michel Barnier’s administration. The CAC 40 stock index in Paris outperformed the wider European Stoxx 600 index, while borrowing costs between France and Germany held steady.

Marine Le Pen, the leader of France’s far-right, collaborated with a left-wing coalition to bring down Barnier’s government on Wednesday, plunging the country into deeper political uncertainty. President Emmanuel Macron now faces the challenge of finding a new prime minister capable of securing approval for the 2025 budget in a highly polarized parliament.

Focus on US jbless claims

US equity futures remained steady after the S&P 500 reached its 56th record closing of 2024, positioning the index for its strongest year since 2019. Wall Street’s optimism was lifted following comments from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, who stated that the US economy is in “remarkably good shape.” The spotlight now shifts to the upcoming US jobless claims figures, leading up to the essential non-farm payrolls report due on Friday. 

While speaking at the New York Times DealBook Summit in New York, Powell indicated that the downside risks in the labor market had diminished. He mentioned that Fed officials could proceed cautiously as they move interest rates closer to a neutral level—an equilibrium that neither boosts nor hinders economic growth. 

Powell’s remarks about the US economy did not significantly change market expectations, which still suggest that the Fed is likely to implement another rate cut during its meeting later this month.

ETFs reducing Gold, Silver, and Platinum holdings

In the latest trading session, exchange-traded funds (ETFs) sold off 226,525 troy ounces of gold, increasing this year’s total net sales to 2.68 million ounces, based on data from Bloomberg. This sale was valued at approximately $600.3 million at the previous day’s spot price. Overall, the amount of gold held by ETFs has decreased by 3.1 percent this year, totaling 82.9 million ounces.

Gold prices have climbed 28 percent this year, reaching $2,649.90 an ounce, with a slight increase of 0.2 percent in the most recent session. State Street’s SPDR Gold Shares, the largest precious metals ETF, did not change its holdings in the last session, maintaining a total of 28.1 million ounces worth about $74.4 billion. Additionally, in the last trading session, ETFs also reduced their silver holdings by 2.22 million troy ounces, bringing this year’s total net purchases for silver to 30.6 million ounces, marking the third consecutive day of reductions.

Oil traders on high alert for OPEC+ decision

Oil traders are gearing up for a day filled with market headlines as OPEC+ leaders deliberate on whether to maintain or adjust their plans concerning crude supply increases. 

The prevailing expectation is for the group to decide once again against easing current output restrictions. However, surprises are always a possibility, especially given Saudi Arabia’s tendency for unexpected moves. Historically, Riyadh has been known to challenge short-sellers when it has the room to maneuver. 

The broader issue is that the alliance finds itself in a difficult position as nations outside the group capitalize on its carefully managed production limits. The notable decline in the cartel’s share of the global market is likely to become increasingly difficult for all OPEC+ members to accept. With many countries having spare production capacity, the temptation to utilize it is strong. 

In a timely data release ahead of today’s meeting, the US Energy Information Administration reported that US oil rigs are extracting 13.5 million barrels per day, a record high that far exceeds Saudi Arabia’s current output of approximately 9 million barrels.

Prepared by Nour Hammoury, Chief Market Analyst at SquaredFinancial
Nour is an investor, independent market strategist, and financial advisor. He holds a BA in Finance and Banking Science from Al-Ahliyya Amman University and a CFTe in Economics from the International Federation of Technical Analysts. He has more than 15 years of experience in forex, stocks, and global economic developments, as well as central bank policies and intermarket analysis. He appears regularly on major international TV networks, such as BBC, Al-Jazeera, Al Hurra, CNBC, and Bloomberg, holding open discussions and sharing insights and readings of the markets and trends.

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